Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has got something to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
