Just eight weeks in the past that the young forward was standing on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager admonished him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was whether his displays were an indicator or the reason for the side's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the touchline reaction was entirely decidedly more positive. When the England international swept in his brace-sealing goal to restore the lead for Villa, Emery discarded his winter coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa continued to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their initial half-dozen matches, are somehow only three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Challengers?
This is an exceptionally difficult question to address. The historical record, the perceived status of the club, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, even as the victories have stacked up.
According to Opta, twice all season has the side registered an xG notably superior than the opposition. For a team which has just won ten consecutive victories, Villa look strangely fragile – but right now the margins are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent before hoping their talisman to rescue them with some crisp finishes. It happened away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and once more versus Manchester United.
The initial strike came from an exquisite effort, bent just inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of his first capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opponents had more efforts and more shots on target. They have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge the club have to face over the coming weeks. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on blasting the football past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists an alternative path in which, instead of results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs could still return to peak condition.
- The main striker could start scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the force he showed during his peak.
- The defensive duo are set to regain fitness, bolstering a sometimes shaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely two months ago, no one envisioned Rogers now would be spearheading a title charge while looking like a vital Three Lions star.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it seems so surreal. When the match-winner stood in front of the Villa faithful when the game ended conducting the cheers, he appeared to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells do not happen often and should be relished.
